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The Chairman Grows Older But Not Wiser
Bernard Wasow, The Century Foundation, 9/1/2004

We all change as we age, but the Alan Greenspan of 2004 might be unrecognizable to the Alan Greenspan of 1983. From a reasonable policy advisor, who counseled adjustments to save Social Security in 1983, Mr. Greenspan has metamorphosed into just another Social Security hysteric, calling for euthanasia for a system that is still very much alive.

In 1983, with the Social Security Trust Funds about to be depleted, President Ronald Reagan appointed Mr. Greenspan to head a commission that would recommend changes in Social Security policy. The Greenspan Commission, which included the late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, proposed increases in the Social Security payroll tax and some cuts in benefits, effected primarily through increases in the retirement age.

As a result of those changes, the Trust Funds have grown to more than $1.5 trillion today—enough to cover about four years of benefits if payroll taxes dried up tomorrow. The Trust Funds are projected to continue to increase for another twenty years, peaking at over $6 trillion in the mid 2020s. And that's if we do nothing.

It is true that our none-too-perfect crystal ball forecasts a financing problem in mid-century for Social Security. But with no interventions at all, Social Security can continue meeting all of its promises for another four to five decades. That is what Mr. Greenspan calls a crisis?

And the reason we may have a financing problem (after most of the Baby Boomers are dead) is that old people are living longer and longer. Longevity and long retirements are something to celebrate, not a reason to call in Dr. Kevorkian to fix Social Security. The proportion of old people in our society is growing. It is a simple logical consequence that more of our output will go to them in the future. The projections from the Social Security Trustees suggest that the cost of Social Security will rise from about 4.5 percent of GDP today to 6.5 percent in 75 years. Two percent of GDP is about one good year of growth. That is all it will take to keep Social Security whole for another hundred years or more.

Social Security provides minimal benefits; the average is less than $10,000 per year. Yet two thirds of retirees get at least half of their money income from Social Security and a third get more than 90 percent of their income from Social Security benefits.

Having lived through the ups and downs of the last two decades, Alan Greenspan of 2004 today should know even better than the Alan Greenspan of 1983 that this minimal protection is essential for millions of Americans. If not, it's time he was reminded.

Bernard Wasow is a senior fellow at The Century Foundation.



 



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