We all change as we age, but the Alan Greenspan of 2004 might be unrecognizable
to the Alan Greenspan of 1983. From a reasonable policy advisor, who counseled
adjustments to save Social Security in 1983, Mr. Greenspan has metamorphosed
into just another Social Security hysteric, calling for euthanasia for a system
that is still very much alive.
In 1983, with the Social Security Trust Funds about to be depleted, President
Ronald Reagan appointed Mr. Greenspan to head a commission that would recommend
changes in Social Security policy. The Greenspan Commission, which included
the late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, proposed increases in the Social Security
payroll tax and some cuts in benefits, effected primarily through increases
in the retirement age.
As a result of those changes, the Trust Funds have grown to more than $1.5
trillion todayenough to cover about four years of benefits if payroll
taxes dried up tomorrow. The Trust Funds are projected to continue to increase
for another twenty years, peaking at over $6 trillion in the mid 2020s. And
that's if we do nothing.
It is true that our none-too-perfect crystal ball forecasts a financing problem
in mid-century for Social Security. But with no interventions at all, Social
Security can continue meeting all of its promises for another four to five decades.
That is what Mr. Greenspan calls a crisis?
And the reason we may have a financing problem (after most of the Baby Boomers
are dead) is that old people are living longer and longer. Longevity and long
retirements are something to celebrate, not a reason to call in Dr. Kevorkian
to fix Social Security. The proportion of old people in our society is growing.
It is a simple logical consequence that more of our output will go to them in
the future. The projections from the Social Security Trustees suggest that the
cost of Social Security will rise from about 4.5 percent of GDP today to 6.5
percent in 75 years. Two percent of GDP is about one good year of growth. That
is all it will take to keep Social Security whole for another hundred years
or more.
Social Security provides minimal benefits; the average is less than $10,000
per year. Yet two thirds of retirees get at least half of their money income
from Social Security and a third get more than 90 percent of their income from
Social Security benefits.
Having lived through the ups and downs of the last two decades, Alan Greenspan
of 2004 today should know even better than the Alan Greenspan of 1983 that this
minimal protection is essential for millions of Americans. If not, it's time
he was reminded.
Bernard Wasow is a senior fellow at The Century Foundation.
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